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Perspectives : Markets & Economy | January 22, 2026

Why we’re underweight in stocks

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Investors may not be adequately rewarded for equity risk in the years ahead. In this short video, Vanguard Global Head of Portfolio Construction Roger Aliaga-Díaz shares why we’re leaning more conservative in our time-varying asset allocation (TVAA) portfolio—favoring a 40% stock and 60% bond mix over the traditional 60/40 approach.

With stretched equity valuations and interest rates above the rate of inflation, our models project that a 40/60 portfolio could achieve comparable returns to a 60/40 over the next decade, but with less risk. We’re a bit more conservative within each asset class as well.

Watch the video to see how we’re balancing risk and return in today’s market environment.


Notes: 

  • All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. Be aware that fluctuations in the financial markets and other factors may cause declines in the value of your account. There is no guarantee that any particular asset allocation or mix of funds will meet your investment objectives or provide you with a given level of income. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
  • Investments in bonds are subject to interest rate, credit, and inflation risk.
  • Investments in stocks and bonds issued by non-U.S. companies are subject to risks including country/regional risk and currency risk. These risks are especially high in emerging markets.

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Notes: 

  • All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. Be aware that fluctuations in the financial markets and other factors may cause declines in the value of your account. There is no guarantee that any particular asset allocation or mix of funds will meet your investment objectives or provide you with a given level of income. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
  • Investments in bonds are subject to interest rate, credit, and inflation risk.
  • Investments in stocks and bonds issued by non-U.S. companies are subject to risks including country/regional risk and currency risk. These risks are especially high in emerging markets.
Roger Aliaga-Díaz, Ph.D.

Global Head of Portfolio Construction and Chief Economist, Americas

Roger Aliaga-Díaz, Ph.D.
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Roger Aliaga-Díaz, Ph.D.
Global Head of Portfolio Construction and Chief Economist, Americas

Roger Aliaga-Díaz, Ph.D., is global head of portfolio construction and chief economist for the Americas. His areas of expertise are economics, macroeconomic forecasting, and portfolio construction.

Roger and his global research team develop multi-asset-class strategies and conduct quantitative research on asset allocation and investment solutions. With his team, he has built two proprietary portfolio construction models that underpin the firm’s global investment advice methodology: the Vanguard Life-Cycle Investing Model and the Vanguard Asset Allocation Model.

Roger is also vice-chair of Vanguard's Strategic Asset Allocation Committee and chair of its Time-Varying Asset Allocation Subcommittee, which oversee and determine the asset allocation of multi-asset-class funds such as the Vanguard Target Retirement Funds. He has served as a co-portfolio manager of several multi-asset-class funds since February 2023.

Before joining Vanguard in 2007, Roger served as a visiting professor of macroeconomics at Drexel University’s LeBow College of Business.

Roger has published on investment and macroeconomic issues and has presented at industry and academic conferences, including the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the American Enterprise Institute, and the American Economic Association. He is frequently interviewed by financial media around the world.

Roger earned a B.A. in economics from Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Argentina, and a Ph.D. in economics from North Carolina State University.

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